XLM Price Prediction: Targets $0.18-$0.20 Recovery by March 2026

Tony Kim Feb 05, 2026 11:03

XLM trades at oversold RSI levels near $0.16 support, with technical indicators suggesting potential bounce toward $0.18-$0.20 resistance zone within 4-6 weeks.

XLM Price Prediction Summary

• Short-term target (1 week): $0.17-$0.175 • Medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.18-$0.20 range
• Bullish breakout level: $0.18 • Critical support: $0.15

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Stellar

Recent analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite XLM's current price weakness. Zach Anderson noted on January 27, 2026: "Stellar (XLM) consolidates at $0.21 with neutral RSI signals. Technical analysis suggests potential recovery toward $0.25-$0.27 resistance zone by February 2026." His target of $0.25-$0.27 appears ambitious given current market conditions.

Similarly, Peter Zhang observed on January 24, 2026: "Stellar (XLM) trades at $0.21 with technical indicators suggesting potential recovery toward $0.25-$0.27 resistance zone by February 2026, despite current bearish momentum signals."

While these predictions were made when XLM traded around $0.21, the underlying technical framework suggests a recovery pattern may still be intact, albeit from lower price levels.

XLM Technical Analysis Breakdown

Stellar's technical picture presents a classic oversold setup with mixed signals for the XLM price prediction outlook.

RSI Analysis: XLM's RSI currently sits at 23.75, firmly in oversold territory below the 30 threshold. This extreme reading often precedes short-term bounces, particularly when combined with other technical factors. Historical data shows XLM tends to find buyers when RSI drops below 25.

Moving Average Structure: The price action shows XLM trading significantly below all major moving averages, with the current $0.16 price sitting well under the SMA 7 ($0.18), SMA 20 ($0.20), and SMA 50 ($0.21). The 200-day SMA at $0.31 highlights the longer-term bearish trend that began in late 2025.

MACD Momentum: The MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates bearish momentum has stalled rather than accelerated. While still negative, the flattening suggests selling pressure may be exhausting. The MACD line at -0.0142 matches the signal line, creating a potential setup for bullish divergence if price begins to recover.

Bollinger Bands: XLM's position at -0.03 relative to the Bollinger Bands indicates the price is touching the lower band at $0.16, with the middle band (SMA 20) at $0.20 serving as initial resistance. The band width suggests moderate volatility, with the daily ATR of $0.01 confirming recent consolidation.

Stellar Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case

Bullish Scenario

The primary Stellar forecast for upside recovery targets the $0.18-$0.20 zone based on multiple confluence factors. Initial resistance at $0.17 must be cleared on solid volume before targeting the stronger $0.18 level, which aligns with both the SMA 7 and previous support-turned-resistance.

A successful break above $0.18 would open the path toward $0.20 (SMA 20 and Bollinger Band middle), potentially extending to $0.21 (SMA 50) in an optimistic scenario. This Stellar forecast requires RSI to climb above 40 and MACD to generate a bullish crossover.

Key bullish catalysts include oversold bounce dynamics, potential positive divergence formation, and the historical tendency for XLM to recover from extreme RSI readings. Volume expansion above the recent average of $18.9 million would confirm institutional interest.

Bearish Scenario

The bear case for this XLM price prediction centers on a breakdown below the critical $0.15 support level. This scenario would target the $0.14-$0.13 range, representing a 12-18% decline from current levels.

Bearish confirmation would come from sustained trading below $0.15 with RSI remaining below 30 and MACD histogram turning more negative. The distance to the SMA 200 at $0.31 illustrates the severity of the current downtrend, suggesting any recovery may face significant overhead resistance.

Risk factors include broader crypto market weakness, continued institutional selling pressure, and potential regulatory concerns affecting altcoin sentiment.

Should You Buy XLM? Entry Strategy

The current technical setup presents a high-risk, high-reward entry opportunity for the XLM price prediction thesis. Conservative buyers should wait for confirmation above $0.17 before establishing positions, targeting the $0.18-$0.20 recovery zone.

• Aggressive: $0.16 (current oversold levels)
• Conservative: $0.165-$0.17 (above immediate resistance)

• Breakout: $0.175+ (momentum confirmation)

• Stop-loss: $0.149 (below strong support)

• Position sizing: Limit to 2-3% of portfolio given volatility
• Take-profit: Scale out between $0.18-$0.20

The oversold RSI provides a favorable risk-reward setup, but traders should remain cautious given the broader bearish trend structure. Dollar-cost averaging into positions may prove more effective than lump-sum entries in this volatile environment.

Conclusion

This XLM price prediction suggests a potential 12-25% recovery toward $0.18-$0.20 over the next 4-6 weeks, supported by oversold technical conditions and historical bounce patterns. However, the Stellar forecast remains cautiously optimistic given the established bearish trend and macro headwinds.

The key catalyst will be XLM's ability to reclaim the $0.17-$0.18 zone with sustained volume, which would validate the oversold bounce thesis and open the path for further recovery. Failure to hold current support near $0.15 could extend the decline toward $0.13-$0.14.

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and subject to high volatility. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

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