Why Bernstein thinks Bitcoin’s 40% drawdown is just a confidence wobble

Research and brokerage firm Bernstein, which manages approximately $867 billion in assets, declared on March 24 that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price bottom is likely in and maintained its end-of-2026 price target of $150,000 — implying more than a 100% gain from current levels — as the firm’s analysts argued the ongoing selloff is categorically different from every bear market Bitcoin has previously endured.​

Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani described the current pullback as “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” pointing to what the firm sees as a temporary crisis of investor confidence rather than any deterioration in Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals. With BTC trading around $70,668 at time of writing — down roughly 40% from its peak — Bernstein’s conviction remains intact.

A Different Kind of Drawdown

The framing is a deliberate break from how past bear markets have been characterized. Previous Bitcoin cycles saw far more violent collapses: the 2013 peak near $1,150 was followed by an 84% drawdown, the 2017 high of $20,000 preceded a 77% decline, and the 2021 peak near $69,000 gave way to a roughly 70% correction. By comparison, the current drawdown of around 40% looks restrained — and Bernstein argues it is, structurally speaking, far less dangerous.​

The key differentiators, according to the firm, are the maturation of institutional flows and a more favorable policy environment. Spot Bitcoin ETF adoption continues to expand, corporate treasury participation is accelerating, and the U.S. political backdrop has shifted in a direction broadly viewed as supportive of digital assets. None of the systemic failures that defined 2022 — collapsed exchanges, insolvent lenders, contagion — are present in the current cycle.

Strategy and On-Chain Signals

Strategy’s continued accumulation at depressed prices is cited as a key supporting data point. The company now holds approximately 3.6% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, valued at around $53.5 billion, and has raised $7.3 billion in 2026 specifically to expand its Bitcoin treasury. Bernstein views Strategy as a high-beta vehicle with a structurally resilient balance sheet, noting that only an extreme scenario — BTC falling to $8,000 and remaining there for five years — would require any balance sheet restructuring.​

On-chain data adds further context. Analyst Ali Charts pointed to Bitcoin approaching the 0.8 MVRV ratio band, a level situated between $56,000 and $60,000 that has historically served as a launchpad for major rallies: +963% in 2017, +261% in 2018, +1,126% in 2020, and +660% following the FTX collapse in 2022. CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan echoed the sentiment, arguing that reduced participation and fading retail interest are “textbook bear market” indicators — but historically, accumulation phases rather than exit points. “A bear market is not a time to give up. It is the time to prepare for the next bull cycle,” he wrote on X.​

Where Analysts Diverge

Not everyone shares Bernstein’s confidence. VanEck CEO Jan VanEck told CNBC in early March that while a bottom may be forming, 2026 represents Bitcoin’s typical fourth-year bear cycle, consistent with historical halving patterns. Some traders argue that failure to reclaim and hold above $70,000 could open the door to a deeper leg lower, potentially retesting the $60,000 level that has emerged as the most closely watched structural support.​

Bernstein’s $150,000 target, first established when Bitcoin was trading at significantly higher levels, aligns with a broader cluster of institutional 2026 price forecasts that include $150,000 from BSTR President Katherine Dowling and $180,000 from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. Longer term, Bernstein maintains a target of $1 million by 2033.