Capital Exits Crypto as Gold and S&P 500 Hit Record Highs

Bitcoin (BTC) slid below recent support levels this week as gold and U.S. equities pushed to fresh records, while on-chain data pointed to shrinking liquidity inside the crypto market.

The split has revived debate over whether capital is leaving digital assets altogether or simply waiting on the sidelines as risk appetite shifts.

Stablecoin Outflows and Weak BTC Signals Raise Pressure

Bitcoin was trading at just under $88,000 at the time of this writing, after several days of uneven price action that followed a broader risk-off turn across global markets.

Commentary has focused on signs of institutional selling, with analyst Sunny Mom pointing out earlier today that the Coinbase Premium Index had dropped to about -0.17%, a level that suggests heavier selling during U.S. trading hours than elsewhere. The index turned positive only twice in January, reinforcing the view that large investors have reduced exposure rather than added to positions.

Liquidity data has added to those concerns. According to figures cited by Sunny Mom, the combined market capitalization of the top stablecoins has fallen by roughly $2.2 billion in recent days, extending a peak-to-trough decline of about $5.6 billion.

A separate assessment by Darkfost noted that Ethereum-based stablecoin supply dropped by around $7 billion in a single week, the first contraction of that scale in the current cycle. Analysts generally interpret falling stablecoin supply as investors converting digital dollars back into fiat, which reduces immediate buying power across crypto markets.

Against that backdrop, Sunny Mom outlined a clear bear case. If selling pressure builds, Bitcoin could revisit structural support zones near the True Mean Price around $81,000, the 2024 high near $70,000, or even the 200-week moving average close to $58,000. The analyst stressed these levels reflect market structure rather than predictions, but said the current balance of flows leaves downside risk open.

Recent price performance has reflected that strain, with BTC down 2.5% in the past week while gold rallied about 3% in 24 hours to above $5,500 per ounce. The move added about $1.65 trillion, almost as much as Bitcoin’s entire valuation, to gold’s market capitalization in just one day.

Silver also jumped above $120 per ounce, up about 68% this month, adding to the sense that capital is favoring traditional havens.

Is Liquidity Leaving Crypto or Waiting for Clarity?

Not everyone agrees that crypto is financing the metals rally. On-chain analyst Carmelo Alemán wrote earlier today that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio sits near 12.6, down from the 18 to 19 range seen weeks ago. That level has historically matched with consolidation phases rather than outright exits, suggesting capital may be parked in stablecoins rather than gone for good.

Market voices have also cautioned against reading too much into short-term divergence. For example, ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that Bitcoin remains up more than 400% since 2022, outpacing gold, silver, and the Nasdaq over that span. He argued that the current slowdown reflects prices running ahead of adoption tied to spot ETFs, not a failure of the longer-term case.

Meanwhile, there are those who see macro conditions as the deciding factor. As CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain wrote recently, dollar weakness tied to fear and capital preservation tends to favor assets with long-established roles, like gold, while Bitcoin trades more like a risk asset. Until that backdrop shifts, shrinking stablecoin supply and cautious positioning may continue to weigh on crypto prices.

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