Key Notes
- JPMorgan says the US dollar drop is being driven by short-term flows and sentiment, not a shift in US growth or monetary policy.
- Unlike the gold rally, Bitcoin price has remained range-bound, indicating it’s behaving more like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset than a store of value.
- Glassnode reports muted BTC trading volumes, bearish options positioning, and ~143,000 BTC sold by long-term holders in 30 days.
Despite the US Dollar Index falling more than 10% over the past year, Bitcoin
BTC
$84 747
24h volatility:
5.2%
Market cap:
$1.69 T
Vol. 24h:
$56.92 B
price has failed to show strength, leaving investors confused. On the other hand, a weakening dollar is pushing precious metals like gold and silver to fresh highs. JPMorgan strategists explain the reason why BTC is failing to catch up despite the USD weakness.
Why Bitcoin Price Underperformed Despite US Dollar Index Drop
Historically, BTC price usually moves in the opposite direction to the USD.
Explaining the linearity between USD and BTC over the past year, JPMorgan strategists noted that the weakness in USD is being driven largely by short-term flows and market sentiment, rather than a fundamental shift in US growth or monetary policy expectations.
They noted that US rate differentials continue to favor the dollar, suggesting the move may not be structural.
Furthermore, the bank noted that the US dollar weakness could be temporary, and any recovery in the US economy could lead to a surge in the dollar index. This is the reason why BTC hasn’t acted as a traditional hedge to the US dollar. Yuxuan Tang, JPMorgan Private Bank’s head of macro strategy in Asia, explained:
Gold Dominating BTC as Store of Value
With the gold price hitting $5,500 historic high amid the USD weakness, Bitcoin price has remained rangebound. This shows that BTC is trading more like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset instead of being a store of value.
Until currency markets are driven by growth and rate dynamics rather than by flows and sentiment, JPMorgan believes Bitcoin may continue to lag traditional macro hedges. The $1.8 billion outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs over the past week also show waning institutional confidence in BTC.
Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff said that digital gold Bitcoin is losing its shine over the yellow metal.
The latest Glassnode report said Bitcoin is consolidating amid subdued trading volumes. It added that the spot demand is showing little signs of recovery, while options are positioned on the bearish side.
Bitcoin long-term holder net position | Source: Glassnode
The on-chain analytics firm added that long-term holders have sold roughly 143,000 BTC over the past 30 days. This marks the fastest distribution since August 2025.
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Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.
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Source: https://www.coinspeaker.com/dropping-us-dollar-index-bitcoin-price-jpmorgan/
