Bitcoin is now front-running the Fed rather than reacting to it. ETFs are the cause

Bitcoin may no longer move in step with Federal Reserve policy, according to a new report from Binance Research, which points to a structural shift driven by spot exchange-traded funds.

For years, crypto markets reacted sharply to interest rate signals, with bitcoin falling when central banks tightened monetary policy.

That pattern now appears to be breaking as Binance data shows bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned strongly negative since 2024. Spot bitcoin ETFs were approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024.

Before ETFs, the relationship was mildly positive, with BTC tending to follow global easing cycles by several months. Now, the report finds the opposite effect is nearly three times stronger, suggesting the old link has reversed.

The change reflects a shift in who drives prices. Retail investors once dominated crypto trading and reacted to macro news. ETFs allowed institutions to play a bigger role, and these firms often positioned months ahead of policy changes, treating BTC as a forward-looking asset.

“As a result, BTC may have evolved from a macro ‘lagging receiver’ to a ‘leading pricer,” Binance Research wrote. “A peak in easing may already be old news for BTC, and crypto-native drivers—such as policy progress and institutional flows—could matter more than the direction of monetary easing itself.”

The findings come as markets grapple with renewed stagflation fears tied to rising oil prices and growing geopolitical tensions over the war in the Middle East.

Rate expectations have swung from projected cuts to possible hikes, a backdrop that historically pressured risk assets.

Binance argues that the reaction may be overstated. In past cycles, central banks often pivoted to support growth despite inflation spikes. If history repeats itself, central banks are to eventually prioritize growth over inflation, and bitcoin will likely price that pivot earlier than expected.