Iran eases transit restrictions for Iraq, but US-Iran ceasefire odds drop

Iran has eased restrictions for Iraq, allowing unrestricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz and reopening borders for trade and pilgrims. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.

This move indicates a de-escalation with Iraq, but US-Iran tensions remain high. The market for an April 15 ceasefire sits at 6.5% YES, down from 22% last week, showing little impact on broader ceasefire expectations. The April 30 odds have also fallen to 17.5% from 40%.

Despite easing restrictions for Iraq, traders remain skeptical about broader diplomatic progress. The May 31 market shows a 36.5% chance, down from 52%, suggesting any de-escalation is limited.

Daily volume across these markets is $3.76M, with $430K in USDC traded. The order book depth is thin, with $12K needed to move 5 points in the April 7 market. The largest move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market, indicating some interest but not enough to change the overall outlook.

While positive for Iraq, this development doesn’t change the ceasefire trajectory. At 17.5¢, a YES share on April 30 pays $1 if resolved—a 5.7x return. Traders need more than Iraq-specific gestures to see broader diplomatic progress.

Watch for intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar, or changes in rhetoric from figures like Trump or Rubio. These could signal a genuine shift toward a ceasefire.