Ethereum (ETH) Price: A Rare Undervaluation Signal Is Flashing — Last Time It Did, ETH Doubled

TLDR

• ETH is up 6.5% in 30 days, outperforming Bitcoin and XRP over the same period
• A macro oscillator reading of -2.42 places ETH in a rare undervalued zone last seen in 2022
• The MVRV Ratio has recovered from -42% in February to -27.5%, echoing a prior cycle bottom pattern
• Spot cumulative volume delta hit 184,500 ETH in April, showing demand is driven by real buyers, not leverage
• Key resistance sits at $2,225–$2,265, with upside targets at $2,400–$2,500 if bulls hold $2,140

Ethereum is trading above $2,200 after a 6.33% rally pushed it past the $2,150 resistance level. Bulls are now targeting a retest of March highs near $2,385.

Over the past 30 days, ETH is the top performer among the top five cryptocurrencies, up 6.5%. Bitcoin gained just 1.4% in the same window, while XRP fell 4.7%.

Crypto markets broadly got a boost after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. Oil prices, which had spiked to $117, dropped back below $100 shortly after. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index moved from 23 (Fear) to a neutral reading of 47.

ETF inflows turned positive but stayed weak. Just $36 million came in during the first three trading days of the week.

Macro Signal Points to Undervaluation

The Capriole Macro Index Oscillator is sitting at -2.42 for ETH, a level not seen since 2022. The indicator tracks investment behavior, cycle positioning, and on-chain data. Deeply negative readings have historically aligned with seller exhaustion and price reversals.

In mid-2022, ETH bottomed near $1,000–$1,200 when this indicator fell to -2.2. In late 2023, a drop to -1 coincided with ETH breaking out from $1,500.

MVRV Ratio Shows Recovery Pattern

The MVRV Ratio, which compares market value to what investors originally paid, fell to -42% in early February. It has since climbed to -27.5%. This pattern closely mirrors what happened in April 2025, when ETH bottomed near $1,400 before rallying.

The last time the MVRV Ratio crossed back above zero, ETH gained 70% in two months.

Analyst crypto sunmoon noted that Ethereum’s taker buy/sell ratio has been trending upward for four to five months. The analyst pointed out that this setup looks similar to the period before the April–May 2025 rally.

Spot demand is driving the current move. The aggregated spot CVD stands at 184,500 ETH for April. Futures CVD has also climbed gradually to 4.36 million ETH. The funding rate is positive at 0.0052, and open interest sits near 4.75 million ETH — range-bound, with limited leverage in the market.

On the four-hour chart, ETH has formed higher lows. Resistance sits at $2,225, then $2,265. A break above $2,265 opens the path to $2,320 and potentially $2,400–$2,450.

If ETH loses the $2,140 level, initial support is at $2,110, with the main floor near $2,060.

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