Author: Jordi Visser
The author is a professional investor with over 30 years of experience in traditional finance and macroeconomics on Wall Street. The views expressed in this article represent the author's personal opinion only and should not be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor do they constitute any investment advice or recommendation.
Back on April 8th, when tariff panic and the shadow of Liberation Day loomed over the market, I published an article titled "A Glimmer of Hope After the Storm." At that time, the S&P 500 had plummeted by 20%, economists were predicting a recession, and panic permeated the market. I pointed out that this self-inflicted sell-off would eventually become an excellent buying opportunity due to artificial intelligence, and predicted that six months later people would realize that the current panic was unnecessary compared to the progress of AI.
Ultimately, things unfolded exactly as predicted. Markets recovered, risky assets rose, the narrative of artificial intelligence accelerated, and people adapted accordingly.
By November, the Bitcoin market was sluggish due to price consolidation and underperformance compared to stocks. I wrote an article titled "Bitcoin's Silent IPO," arguing that Bitcoin's frustrating consolidation while other assets rose was not weakness, but a necessary distribution phase. Established whales finally had the opportunity to release liquidity, systematically selling to meet the massive demand from institutional investors such as ETFs and corporate bonds. This was like the end of a traditional IPO lock-up period—an uncomfortable and agonizing process, but ultimately healthy in the long run.
Okay, that consolidation has been broken. The silent IPO dividend triggered a deeper correction, with stock prices finally starting to pull back, led by AI speculative stocks heavily influenced by retail investors. I highlighted this in my weekly video last weekend. This move has resulted in a slight year-to-date decline for Bitcoin. The cognitive dissonance that previously frustrated the cryptocurrency community has evolved into genuine bearishness and skepticism. The optimism of "Liberation Day" seems like a distant memory. Discussions about the end of the four-year cycle are intensifying. The argument that "Bitcoin has lost its upside potential" is echoing on social media, and even proponents of "this time is different" are beginning to waver.
This year's decline has dragged the CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index back to the lows of around Liberation Day, around 15. All hope seems to have vanished. That's why it's time to release Part Two of "A Glimmer of Hope at the End of the Storm." For me, the core idea of this story is exactly the same as Liberation Day. All assets are being driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, and I will continue to argue that in the coming years, all investors will eventually realize they've missed a story. And Bitcoin is the best illustration of that AI story.
Aside from their similar publication dates to the 2008 Bitcoin white paper and the 2009 Raina-Madhavan-Ng paper (a landmark study that was the first to demonstrate that GPUs could accelerate deep learning by more than 70 times, essentially igniting the modern era of GPU-driven machine learning), both are part of an exponential innovation that would not have happened without each other.
Exponential innovation has reduced the need for people to work in offices, or even eliminates the need for work altogether. It has also led to unequal wealth distribution, forcing governments worldwide to maintain fiscal deficits and drive up financial assets as a form of universal basic income (UBI). Today's UBI is not a government-issued check, but rather universal beta income: your wealth grows because the system has no other choice.
For those without assets, they receive transfer payments as another form of UBI. This creates the familiar K-shaped economy and fuels widespread anger due to declining living costs stemming from both job anxieties and wage pressures from reduced hiring, as well as inflation driven by government-backed UBI. Bitcoin benefits from this upward spiral, closely correlated with risk assets, until artificial intelligence began to engulf capitalism and public markets. Stablecoins, combined with AI agents, increase the velocity of money, thus reducing the need for leverage; tokenization allows concentrated and idle assets such as real estate, private debt, private equity, and venture capital to trade freely around the clock, reducing the leverage supporting their prices.
As artificial intelligence develops, the deflationary pressures it brings will gradually emerge. By 2026, applications such as AI-powered drug development, autonomous taxis, and AI-powered agents will drive up prices, as increased profit margins and intensified competition from commercialized intelligence will further inflate prices.
The most intriguing aspect right now is that while people were worried Bitcoin wouldn't keep pace with the stock market's rise, its performance is now exactly as expected. As the stock market corrected, especially inflated retail AI stocks, Bitcoin followed suit. The divergence that puzzled everyone during the quiet IPO period has disappeared. Bitcoin is once again trading as a risk asset, closely linked to growth expectations and liquidity conditions. I believe this will create the necessary purchasing power and momentum to drive a new upward trend.
This means that, looking ahead to 2026, I see a glimmer of hope again: the light at the end of the tunnel is just around the corner. Just as the tariff panic in April created a buying opportunity for those who could overcome their fears, this Bitcoin pullback—in sync with the weakness in broader risk assets—is laying the groundwork for the next significant rally.
A long-standing misconception is that Bitcoin should be traded independently of traditional risky assets. This argument views Bitcoin as digital gold, a means of hedging against risk, and unrelated to the stock market. Therefore, if Bitcoin falls along with stocks, it must be due to a problem with some mechanism.
This is incorrect. Bitcoin is a risky asset. I've written on my blog: Yes, Virginia, Bitcoin is a risky asset.
Yes, Bitcoin functions as a store of value. Yes, it is decentralized. But in terms of market psychology and capital flows, Bitcoin behaves more like a high-beta risk asset. ETF investors allocate Bitcoin alongside stocks, replacing it with stocks when they reduce portfolio risk. Retail investors allocate the same amount of money to cryptocurrencies and stocks. Even those who advocate for Bitcoin's devaluation tend to accumulate more Bitcoin during periods of strong economic growth and ample cash flow.
Therefore, when the Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin falls too. When AI stocks are hit, Bitcoin is hit as well. This isn't a bug; it's a characteristic of Bitcoin. This is a reasonable reaction from Bitcoin's holders.
This is why it's a positive factor: if Bitcoin is linked to risk assets, then Bitcoin's prospects are closely tied to the prospects of those risk assets. This means that to understand Bitcoin's future, we need to understand the future direction of the stock market.
Let me tell you why I am extremely bullish on risk assets in 2026.
The market continues to climb under the weight of anxiety. Currently, this high wall is built upon concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble, worries about an economic recession, and pessimism about cryptocurrencies. But the situation in 2026 is noteworthy.
Fiscal support continues. The Infrastructure Act, the Chip and Information Security Act (CHIPS Act), and the Inflation Reduction Act are not just empty words, but multi-trillion-dollar spending plans that are creating real economic activity and generating deficits. This plan, known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill," is designed to prepare for the midterm elections. Data centers are being built at an unprecedented pace. Semiconductor manufacturing plants are under construction. Power infrastructure is being upgraded.
The Federal Reserve still has room for easing. Inflation is currently under control. Wages, housing prices, and oil prices have been under pressure this year, so inflation should remain stable relative to the weak labor market as the effects of tariffs gradually materialize. Artificial intelligence is both a deflationary factor and a factor contributing to the weakness in the labor market.
Artificial intelligence is on the verge of a breakthrough. The pace of development in AI over the past year has been astonishing. We are about to witness tangible, real-world breakthroughs that will undoubtedly attract mainstream attention:
Artificial Intelligence Drug Discovery: The first drugs discovered by AI are nearing clinical trials. The impact on healthcare and economic productivity will be enormous once positive news emerges. Pharmaceutical stocks have seen their best performance in 30 years so far this November. All pharmaceutical companies will race to integrate AI into their R&D processes. Billions of dollars will flow into the AI healthcare sector.
Self-driving cars: For years, people have said it would be a reality "in five years," and now we're at a turning point. Waymo is expanding. Tesla's FSD system continues to improve. Chinese companies are deploying driverless taxis on a large scale. By 2026, when self-driving cars are widespread in major cities, speculation about humanoid robots will be rampant.
AI Agents and Productivity: AI agents capable of autonomously performing complex tasks will begin to appear across various sectors, including enterprise software, customer service, and the creative industries. This will significantly boost productivity and expand profit margins throughout the economy. AI will make every business more efficient, more productive, and more profitable.
Manufacturing is expanding. The construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure is driving the revival of US manufacturing. After years of contraction, manufacturing is showing signs of recovery. I believe that, driven by the aforementioned catalysts, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will rise in 2026. Historically, cryptocurrencies, especially altcoins, tend to perform exceptionally well when the PMI rises.
Short sellers will shout "AI bubble!" Maybe. But bubbles usually take longer to form than anyone expects, and the surge is often much larger. The dot-com bubble didn't peak in 1997 when valuations started to look insane, but rather three years later in March 2000. From the end of 1994 to the end of 1999, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rose 800%. In the past five years, QQQ has risen less than 100%. Compared to the dot-com bubble, that's hardly a bubble. If we're in an AI bubble, it's only in the early to mid-stages. The mainstream market hasn't fully embraced AI yet. Your relatives won't ask you about AI stocks at Thanksgiving. That's still some time away, and I believe in cryptocurrencies.
A bubble bursts need a catalyst, typically the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening during a period of economic weakness. But the Fed has already completed its tightening. They may begin easing monetary policy in 2026 rather than initiating a new tightening cycle. The typical catalyst is absent.
If risk assets perform strongly overall in 2026, Bitcoin, as a high-beta risk asset, should significantly outperform other assets. However, Bitcoin also possesses unique catalysts that make its prospects even more enticing.
The Clarity Act. For years, regulatory uncertainty has hampered the development of cryptocurrencies. Expected to pass by the end of 2025 or early 2026, the Clarity Act will provide a clear regulatory framework, define jurisdiction, and eliminate legal ambiguity, thus preventing institutional investors from remaining hesitant. Groups that have been waiting for regulatory clarity, including some large asset management firms and pension funds, will finally be allowed to invest. Compared to the impending development, the ETF inflows we are currently seeing will appear negligible.
Tokenization is booming. Major financial institutions are tokenizing government bonds, real estate, commodities, and stocks. JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and others are building tokenization platforms. This validates the viability of the entire crypto infrastructure and proves that blockchain is not limited to digital gold. As tokenization scales up and idle assets begin to trade 24/7 with lower leverage requirements, Bitcoin's value as a neutral settlement asset will become increasingly apparent, making it a veritable TCP/IP (Payment/Payment Protocol) for the digital finance world.
Stablecoins are rapidly gaining traction. This is the most underestimated positive factor. The adoption of stablecoins is exploding globally, especially in developing countries. Tether and USDC are becoming a major channel for dollar payments in the global economy. When Nigerians receive USDC instead of Naira, when Argentine businesses hold dollar-denominated stablecoins instead of pesos, and when cross-border payments are made through stablecoins instead of correspondent banks, cryptocurrency infrastructure becomes an indispensable part of global commerce.
Stablecoins and Bitcoin are not competitors, but rather a two-part system. Stablecoins serve as a medium of exchange in the digital economy, while Bitcoin acts as a store of value. As more activity and capital flow into the digital economy, Bitcoin's share will naturally continue to grow. You can think of stablecoins as the M2 money market of the digital world, while tokenization is the bridge that brings traditional fiat assets into the system. This creates a powerful network effect: the adoption of stablecoins brings millions of new users into the cryptocurrency space, and these users will eventually need a long-term store of value to hold their funds that they no longer use in stablecoins. Bitcoin becomes their preferred choice. The network effect of stablecoin growth will accelerate Bitcoin's adoption in unpredictable yet undeniable ways.
Decades of market experience tell us that initial lows are often retested. We saw this in April, when the market bottomed out, rebounded, retested those lows, and then continued to rise. This is a normal and healthy pattern, as the market builds support and weeds out weak investors in the process.
I anticipate a similar price action for Bitcoin. We may have already bottomed out, but it's likely to retest those lows in the coming weeks. A new wave of selling could occur as the last few undecided investors capitulate. Bitcoin may experience one last major sell-off, causing a brief dip.
If a pullback occurs, this will be the best opportunity of the year. Because during a pullback, smart money that missed the first bottom will get a second chance. A pullback with lower volume and waning panic will further confirm that the initial low was the true low. I won't wait for a pullback. I believe that now is a good time to enter the market for Bitcoin and stocks by taking advantage of panic and low greed.
Bitcoin has been declining this year. While the allocation of original shares (OG) in initial public offerings (IPOs) is not yet complete, some progress has been made. Bitcoin ownership is more decentralized than ever before. Retail investors are generally bearish and taking a wait-and-see approach. ETF buyers are patiently accumulating. Meanwhile, investors who expect Bitcoin to depreciate continue to systematically increase their holdings. Developing countries are steadily adopting Bitcoin as financial infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the outlook for 2026 looks very optimistic. Fiscal support continues. Monetary policy provides a tailwind. Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence will drive speculative activity and real profit growth. Manufacturing is expanding. The Clarity Act brings regulatory certainty. Tokenization is scaling up. Stablecoins are accelerating network effects.
Bitcoin trades against risk assets. Risk assets are expected to perform strongly in 2026. Therefore, Bitcoin is also expected to perform strongly in 2026.
I always think back to Liberation Day. The S&P 500 had fallen 20%. Economists were predicting an impending recession. People were panic selling. I said then that six months from now, we'd look back and see that the panic was unfounded. I was right.
I feel the same way about Bitcoin now. Yes, this pullback is painful. Yes, market sentiment is terrible. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 15, matching the Liberty Day low. But pullbacks in a bull market always feel like the end of the world. This pullback seems different. They always make people feel like the rally is over.
They always offer purchasing opportunities to those who are able to overcome their fears.
Throughout my trading career, I've weathered enough crises—the Mexican financial crisis of 1994, the Brazilian financial crisis of 1998, the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Liberation Day—so I know that while these moments are unsettling, they are far from as bad as they seem. One truth is clear: if you can overcome your fear, these moments often contain the best investment opportunities.
Bitcoin hasn't crashed. Digital assets aren't dying. What's happening now is exactly what should be happening: a maturing risk asset is still recovering from the 2022 winter. Currently, it's undergoing a pullback along with other risk assets during a period of uncertainty and positioning. Unlike in April, this pullback is narrower, primarily focused on growth stocks and cryptocurrencies, rather than widespread market panic. This is healthier. It means the market is diversifying. It also means that when the recovery arrives, it may be stronger and more targeted.
For those who can see the bigger picture, now is a good time to accumulate wealth. But not recklessly, not abusing leverage, and not using money you can't afford to lose. Instead, it's about thoughtful consideration, prudent action, basing your decisions on fundamentals rather than emotions, and holding firm to your convictions.
Artificial intelligence is driving excess returns on investments, but market volatility will increase. Given the significant challenges governments face in managing this disruptive force, some worrying moments are inevitable. Doubts will be high, and sensational headlines about crashes and bear markets will abound. Ignore these and focus on the fundamentals. Artificial intelligence is the most important and powerful innovation of our time, and it will bring a brighter future in the coming years.
By the time everyone realizes what's happening, it's too late to enter the market. Now is the perfect time for cryptocurrencies, with the fear and greed index at a high 15, people are panic selling, and the tunnel remains dark.
Six months from now, just like Liberation Day, the public opinion surrounding Bitcoin will be completely different. We will look back at those prices and the opinions at the time, and wonder why we had any doubts back then.


