The post Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down? Analysts Question Old Market Rules appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News For years, crypto investors haveThe post Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down? Analysts Question Old Market Rules appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News For years, crypto investors have

Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down? Analysts Question Old Market Rules

Bitcoin Price Crash

The post Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down? Analysts Question Old Market Rules appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

For years, crypto investors have relied on one idea more than almost any other: the Bitcoin four-year cycle. Buy after the crash, wait for the halving, sell into the bull market, repeat. Simple. Predictable. Almost like a cheat code.

Popular crypto analyst Lark Davis recently revisited this idea and raised an uncomfortable question: What if the four-year cycle was never as real as we thought?

Why the Four-Year Cycle Made Sense for So Long

The four-year cycle theory comes from one real event: the Bitcoin halving.

Every four years, Bitcoin’s new supply gets cut in half. Early on, this mattered a lot. Bitcoin started at zero supply, so reducing new coins had a huge effect. Less supply, growing demand, higher prices, the logic was easy to understand.

And for a long time, it seemed to work perfectly. Big rallies followed halvings. Big crashes followed peaks.

The Problem No One Likes to Talk About

Here’s the uncomfortable part.

More than 95% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist has already been mined. What’s left will be released slowly over more than a century. Today, Bitcoin’s supply grows by only about 1% per year, which is actually less than gold.

At this point, cutting that already tiny supply in half doesn’t change much.

So the big question becomes: If the halving barely changes supply anymore, why should it still move price the same way?

What Really Drove Bitcoin’s Big Moves

When you zoom out, Bitcoin’s major highs and lows line up surprisingly well with global liquidity and business cycles, not just halvings.

  • 2017: Economic expansion and easy money
  • 2020–2021: Massive money printing and stimulus
  • 2024: Spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in huge new capital

In fact, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the 2024 halving — something that had never happened before. That alone suggests the old rules are changing.

  • Also Read :
  •   Bitcoin Price Today Holds Near $86,600 Amid Thin Liquidity and Market Uncertainty
  •   ,

Bitcoin also shows a strong connection to global money supply and economic activity. When liquidity rises, Bitcoin tends to do well. When it tightens, Bitcoin struggles.

Another strange detail: the most recent Bitcoin all-time high came with almost no excitement. That doesn’t mean the cycle disappeared completely, it means it may be weaker, diluted, and less reliable than before.

Where That Leaves Bitcoin Now

Right now, Bitcoin looks technically weak, and sentiment is low. Attention has shifted to AI, robotics, and tech stocks. At the same time, the macro picture is shifting. Interest rates are coming down. Liquidity is slowly returning. The environment that once pushed Bitcoin higher may be setting up again.

That doesn’t guarantee a rally tomorrow. But it shows the story isn’t over.

Never Miss a Beat in the Crypto World!

Stay ahead with breaking news, expert analysis, and real-time updates on the latest trends in Bitcoin, altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and more.

bell icon Subscribe to News

FAQs

What is the Bitcoin price prediction for 2025?

Most forecasts expect Bitcoin to stay bullish in 2025, with potential highs around $175K if strong demand, ETF inflows, and adoption continue.

Will Bitcoin hit $1 million by 2030?

While some long-term forecasts are extremely bullish, reaching $1 million by 2030 is speculative. Current credible estimates suggest a potential high around $900,000 by 2030.

Is Bitcoin a good hedge against inflation?

Yes, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a digital inflation hedge. Its fixed supply contrasts with expanding fiat currencies, attracting investors seeking to preserve purchasing power.

How much will Bitcoin be in 10 years?

Bitcoin could trade significantly higher in 10 years, with some forecasts expecting it to reach several hundred thousand dollars if adoption keeps growing.

Market Opportunity
Moonveil Logo
Moonveil Price(MORE)
$0.002447
$0.002447$0.002447
-33.64%
USD
Moonveil (MORE) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

American Bitcoin’s $5B Nasdaq Debut Puts Trump-Backed Miner in Crypto Spotlight

American Bitcoin’s $5B Nasdaq Debut Puts Trump-Backed Miner in Crypto Spotlight

The post American Bitcoin’s $5B Nasdaq Debut Puts Trump-Backed Miner in Crypto Spotlight appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways: American Bitcoin (ABTC) surged nearly 85% on its Nasdaq debut, briefly reaching a $5B valuation. The Trump family, alongside Hut 8 Mining, controls 98% of the newly merged crypto-mining entity. Eric Trump called Bitcoin “modern-day gold,” predicting it could reach $1 million per coin. American Bitcoin, a fast-rising crypto mining firm with strong political and institutional backing, has officially entered Wall Street. After merging with Gryphon Digital Mining, the company made its Nasdaq debut under the ticker ABTC, instantly drawing global attention to both its stock performance and its bold vision for Bitcoin’s future. Read More: Trump-Backed Crypto Firm Eyes Asia for Bold Bitcoin Expansion Nasdaq Debut: An Explosive First Day ABTC’s first day of trading proved as dramatic as expected. Shares surged almost 85% at the open, touching a peak of $14 before settling at lower levels by the close. That initial spike valued the company around $5 billion, positioning it as one of 2025’s most-watched listings. At the last session, ABTC has been trading at $7.28 per share, which is a small positive 2.97% per day. Although the price has decelerated since opening highs, analysts note that the company has been off to a strong start and early investor activity is a hard-to-find feat in a newly-launched crypto mining business. According to market watchers, the listing comes at a time of new momentum in the digital asset markets. With Bitcoin trading above $110,000 this quarter, American Bitcoin’s entry comes at a time when both institutional investors and retail traders are showing heightened interest in exposure to Bitcoin-linked equities. Ownership Structure: Trump Family and Hut 8 at the Helm Its management and ownership set up has increased the visibility of the company. The Trump family and the Canadian mining giant Hut 8 Mining jointly own 98 percent…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 01:33
Trump Reviews Candidates to Succeed Fed Chair Powell

Trump Reviews Candidates to Succeed Fed Chair Powell

The post Trump Reviews Candidates to Succeed Fed Chair Powell appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Points: Trump evaluates Fed Chair candidates, considering
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/12/19 08:34
CME Group to launch options on XRP and SOL futures

CME Group to launch options on XRP and SOL futures

The post CME Group to launch options on XRP and SOL futures appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. CME Group will offer options based on the derivative markets on Solana (SOL) and XRP. The new markets will open on October 13, after regulatory approval.  CME Group will expand its crypto products with options on the futures markets of Solana (SOL) and XRP. The futures market will start on October 13, after regulatory review and approval.  The options will allow the trading of MicroSol, XRP, and MicroXRP futures, with expiry dates available every business day, monthly, and quarterly. The new products will be added to the existing BTC and ETH options markets. ‘The launch of these options contracts builds on the significant growth and increasing liquidity we have seen across our suite of Solana and XRP futures,’ said Giovanni Vicioso, CME Group Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products. The options contracts will have two main sizes, tracking the futures contracts. The new market will be suitable for sophisticated institutional traders, as well as active individual traders. The addition of options markets singles out XRP and SOL as liquid enough to offer the potential to bet on a market direction.  The options on futures arrive a few months after the launch of SOL futures. Both SOL and XRP had peak volumes in August, though XRP activity has slowed down in September. XRP and SOL options to tap both institutions and active traders Crypto options are one of the indicators of market attitudes, with XRP and SOL receiving a new way to gauge sentiment. The contracts will be supported by the Cumberland team.  ‘As one of the biggest liquidity providers in the ecosystem, the Cumberland team is excited to support CME Group’s continued expansion of crypto offerings,’ said Roman Makarov, Head of Cumberland Options Trading at DRW. ‘The launch of options on Solana and XRP futures is the latest example of the…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 00:56