A tense moment is about to descend upon the cryptocurrency market. Tomorrow, at 08:00 UTC, there will be an expiry of option contracts worth nearly $2.22 billion on Deribit; this is not something that occurs every week. The large weekly expiry will result in a lot of traders trying to close or roll over their positions.
Deribit has nearly 90% market share in the global crypto options market and, therefore, creates a large amount of influence within the space.
The most pressure right now is on Bitcoin, as BTC alone accounts for over $1.84 billion of the total. The numbers indicate a market that is currently experiencing uncertainty. The bulls are seeking a breakout while the bears are seeking confirmation of weakness; therefore, neither side has complete control at this time.
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Bitcoin’s current put/call ratio is at 1.05, indicating a slightly greater number of bearish (put) trades than bullish (call) trades. This is the result of a cautious sentiment in the market after bitcoin was unable to hold above $95,000.
Traders are now taking a more cautious approach rather than trying to chase the high prices. Traders are protecting themselves with put options.
The “max pain” level is at $90,000 and represents the price at which the majority of options will expire worthless. This price is advantageous to “the house” and not the trader. Based on the current positioning of traders, there is significant put interest below $85,000 and substantial call interest above $90,000. Therefore, the price is stuck between these two walls.
Since November 2025, bitcoin has tested the $90,000 psychological support level three times. The recent push upward to $94,500 is now being labelled as a bull trap due to the resistance at around $92,000. Support is currently located at $85,000.
In contrast, the Put/Call ratio of Ethereum indicates that there is a larger proportion of traders purchasing Calls than Puts. The traders who are participating in this activity are exhibiting confidence while also betting on the upside rather than using these options to hedge against potential future loss of value in Ethereum.
Concerns still remain in the overall crypto marketplace over volatility tied to large failing contracts. When large contracts expire, this creates an environment where price action can happen quickly in either direction – up or down. In many cases, when there is insufficient liquidity, the movement of prices can become extremely violent when prices decline or increases. The seemingly calm state can change dramatically in a matter of minutes.
As the contracts expire and trades are done, the trader will expect a reactionary movement. That reaction will provide insight into whether that movement will produce an actual breakout or ultimately be a false breakout. For now, the entire cryptocurrency space is waiting for all market participants to come to a conclusion.
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