FedWatch Updates Show Higher Odds of No Rate Cuts in January

Following recent U.S. non-farm payrolls data, CME’s FedWatch Tool reports a 2.8% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January, with a 97.2% probability of maintaining the current rate.

The shift in Fed rate expectations could indirectly influence the cryptocurrency market as changes in interest rates affect asset pricing and market sentiment.

FedWatch Revises January Rate Cut Odds to 2.8%

Following the release of new data, CME’s FedWatch indicated a revised 2.8% chance for a 25 basis-point rate cut in January, down from 11.6%. The likelihood of maintaining the current rate increased to 97.2%. By March, expectations shifted slightly, now showing 32.3% probability for a rate cut.

Immediate implications include a shift in market expectations, with more investors assuming the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady rather than reduce them. This influences asset pricing and investment strategy adjustments across financial markets.

As market participants reacted, key figures and analysts emphasized the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, reiterated the importance of monitoring economic changes, highlighting a neutral policy approach.

Crypto Market Responds to Fed’s No-Cut Signal

Did you know? The Federal Reserve’s current rate decision comes after three rate cuts in 2025, positioning the funds rate at a 3.50%–3.75% range. Historically, Federal Reserve actions have led to significant financial fluctuations, affecting market behavior and investor sentiment. See more on Federal Reserve’s historical rates

Bitcoin’s current market statistics as of 14:11 UTC on January 9, 2026, include a price of $90,219.70, reflecting a 0.49% increase over 24 hours. Market capitalization stands at $1.80 trillion, with 58.3% market dominance. Over 90 days, Bitcoin has experienced a 19.68% price decrease. Source: CoinMarketCap

Insights from Coincu’s research team suggest a cautious approach for investors, given the current economic fundamentals and Federal Reserve’s stance. Fed’s historical decision-making patterns indicate continued focus on inflation and employment metrics, often influencing market volatility, particularly in sectors like crypto.