Why Ethereum Price Could Hit $3,500 Despite Funding Rate Drop

Key Insights:

• Ethereum price daily chart is flashing a bullish setup, one that could leave room for a roughly 16% move toward $3,500.
• At the same time, the Ethereum funding rate on ETH perpetual futures briefly flipped negative on Wednesday and now hovers near zero.
• This means anyone placing short bets on ETH price has to pay to keep their positions open.

Ethereum price action flashed a bullish signal on the 1-day chart. It suggested a 16% rally to $3,500, which could ultimately push the price to $4,000.

Adding to that, the Ethereum funding rate on ETH perpetual futures briefly flipped negative on Wednesday. That shift meant short sellers had to pay to keep their positions open, a setup traders often read as bearish pressure getting crowded.

On the downside, sentiment worsened across prediction markets. On Myriad, users now put the odds at 62.5% that ETH drops to $2,500 before it revisits $4,000.

Ethereum Price Eyes $3,400, as It Builds a Base for $4,000

Ethereum price action is still moving within a wide falling channel. That channel has shaped its direction since the late 2024 peak. That pattern continues to steer the market’s medium-term trend around $2,800. Here, buyers are building a base while sellers remain clustered at $3,400.

What stands out is how neatly the price has respected both edges. Each dip toward support has drawn demand, and each push toward resistance has cooled off. It is almost like the market is using those levels as reference points.

From that point, the setup shifts. The range would turn into a launchpad, momentum would likely follow, and the charts would start to favor a continuation move. That move can realistically carry ETH toward the $4,000 area.

However, if ETH price action fails to clear that ceiling, the range likely stays in control. In that case, price would keep chopping between key levels, and any clear follow-through would have to wait.

Ethereum Funding Rate Drops to Zero

Ethereum’s perpetual futures funding rate briefly dipped into negative territory on Wednesday. That shift meant short sellers had to pay to keep their trades open. It usually happens when bearish positioning starts to crowd the market.

Under normal conditions, funding tends to sit around 6% to 12%, and long traders typically cover that cost to maintain leverage. Still, traders said a drop in funding does not automatically signal a bearish trend. Instead, it often shows hesitation and risk management taking over.

That cautious mood followed a brutal flush. Over the prior two days, liquidations wiped out about $480 million in leveraged bullish positions. That left traders far less willing to chase upside.

At the same time, some investors said institutions appear less interested in Ethereum after recent outflows from spot Ether ETFs. Those funds still hold more than $17 billion worth of ETH, which traders view as a large block of supply hanging over the market if selling pressure returns.

US-listed spot Ether ETFs recorded about $230 million in net outflows on Friday. That swing marked a clear reversal from the prior week, when flows leaned positive with roughly $96 million in average daily net inflows.

Meanwhile, pressure also showed up in the corporate crowd that has treated ETH as a reserve asset. Firms like Bitmine Immersion and Sharplink, which built accumulation strategies around Ethereum, now face steep accounting losses as prices and valuations move against them.

Ethereum Price Prediction: Put Vs Call Options as a Sign of Market Mood

To see whether professional traders have turned bearish, analysts said the options market offers a clear clue. They pointed to the demand for ETH puts versus calls as one of the quickest ways to read institutional positioning.

When whales and market makers brace for more downside, they typically bid up put options. In that case, the options skew rises above 8%. It shows puts trading at a premium compared with similar call contracts.

On the other hand, when optimism takes over, skew often drops below -8%. It indicates traders are paying more for upside exposure than protection.

ETH’s options skew shows traders are paying up for protection right now. The data suggests that the market is demanding about an 11% premium to hold downside exposure. It marks the highest reading in seven weeks.

Even so, analysts said it doesn’t necessarily mean traders have turned outright bearish. Instead, it reflects a market that’s growing more cautious after Ethereum failed to clear $3,400 on multiple occasions over the past 10 weeks. That hesitation has only deepened as several key on-chain signals across the network have softened.

Ethereum’s push back to $3,400 hinges on clearer economic signals. Analysts said the market needs better visibility on whether AI infrastructure spending will actually deliver returns. At the same time, progress on easing major economic and geopolitical tensions could help restore the confidence ETH needs to retest that level.