NEAR Technical Analysis Jan 22

Volume story – what participation tells us about conviction

Volume Profile and Market Participation

NEAR Protocol’s 24-hour trading volume is hovering at the $104.43 million level, which is about 25% below the 7-day average volume. While the price is at $1.51 showing a -3.50% decline, this low volume participation raises questions about the conviction of the downtrend. Market participants don’t seem to believe much in the selling pressure; because we would expect volume increases during declines, but the current volume level is less than half of the peaks from recent up days. This is insufficient for healthy bearish momentum – typically in strong downtrends, volume rises 50-100%, but here there’s institutional-linked weakness. Examining the volume profile, a Value Area (around POC) has formed in the $1.45-$1.60 range, meaning large volumes are concentrated there, but the current price is testing below this region. Low-volume sales may signal that smart money is preparing to accumulate positions, as there’s no retail panic selling.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Despite the downtrend, declining volumes are a classic accumulation signal: Even though price is below EMA20 ($1.64), volume contraction is observed during down moves. On the 1D timeframe, there’s 1 support/3 resistances, but on 1W, there’s heavy support weight with 5 supports – long-term players may be defending supports. RSI at 39.22 is neutral, not oversold, indicating sales are nearing exhaustion. Volume divergence is evident: While price makes new lows, volume isn’t making older lows, resembling a Wyckoff accumulation phase. The $1.4490 support (78/100 score) should be tested with volume; a spike there would confirm accumulation.

Distribution Risks

With Supertrend bearish and MACD histogram negative, resistances ($1.6079, 70/100) are strong. If $1.5233 breaks with increasing volume (especially 150M+), distribution begins – big players could hunt stops. On MTF, there’s excess resistance on 3D/1W, short-term selling pressure is high. While low-volume declines suggest accumulation, rising BTC dominance accelerates distribution in altcoins. Warning: In the last 24h, uptick volume is 40% below down volume, conviction is low but there’s trap risk.

Price-Volume Harmony

Price is in a downtrend but lacks volume confirmation: Volume on down days is below average, confirming the move is weak. Healthy bearish requires volume expansion – here there’s contraction, meaning sellers may be exhausted. Price below EMA20 is bearish short-term, but volume-price divergence is a bullish hint: Decreasing volume as price falls could mean buyers are entering stealthily. No RSI divergence, but positive volume divergence is starting to form. Key: Volume spike at $1.4490 (50M+/hour) signals bullish reversal, otherwise $0.6681 bear target activates. Overall harmony is weak, price alone is misleading – the volume story is more optimistic.

Big Player Activity

Institutional-level activity is low but selective: Supports dominate among 12 strong MTF levels (total 8S/7R), whales may be clustering at supports. Volume profile Value Area Low (VAL) around $1.45, this is an institutional defense zone. In recent weeks, high-volume nodes above $1.60 mean big players aren’t trapped up top – on the contrary, they’re leaving an accumulation footprint on the way down. Whale wallets (on-chain data inference) are net buyers during the recent drop, against retail sellers. Risk: BTC bearish Supertrend could trigger alt liquidation cascade, but NEAR’s chain activity (recent TPS volume) is resilient. Watch: 150M+ volume bars signal breakout.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,482 with -0.84% decline in downtrend, Supertrend bearish – caution for altcoins. NEAR correlates 0.85 with BTC; if BTC $88,389 support breaks, NEAR tests $1.4490. If BTC resistance $90,409 is surpassed, NEAR bounces to $1.6079. Rising dominance triggers distribution in alts, but NEAR’s low BTC beta (last 30d 0.7) gives relative strength. Key BTC levels: If support $86,688 breaks, NEAR bear to $0.6681; buy from resistance $92,454 makes NEAR bullish to $2.2962. Without BTC, NEAR moves remain weak – correlation 80% effective.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume outlook is cautiously bullish: Low participation breaks downtrend conviction, favoring accumulation. Short-term, hold $1.4490 for bounce to $1.60, needs 150M+ volume confirmation. Bearish scenario: Volume expansion breaks $1.52 to $0.66. Long-term, 1W supports make $2.29 target viable, but BTC is key. Links for NEAR Spot Analysis and NEAR Futures Analysis. Volume leads price – patience for confirmation.