EGLD Technical Analysis Jan 28

EGLD’s current market structure shows a downtrend – consolidation in the lower bands, no upward breakout signal.

Market Structure Overview

In multiple timeframes (1D, 3D, 1W), EGLD is trading within a clear downtrend. Price fell below the recent swing highs ($6.2075, $5.8850) without reaching them, and the lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) pattern dominates. Current price at $5.71 level, forming a narrow consolidation with 24-hour range $5.64-$5.84. Price unable to hold above EMA20 ($6.02), confirming short-term bearish structure with Supertrend bearish signal ($6.93 resistance). RSI at 41.74 approaching oversold, MACD with negative histogram supporting downside momentum. In total, 10 strong levels identified: 1D with 2 supports/3 resistances, 3D with 1S/1R, 1W with 2S/3R. This shows the structure remains downtrend-focused and requires a strong BOS for upside movement. The market awaits a close above $5.8850 to re-form the HH/HL bullish structure; otherwise, LL continuation is likely.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

Higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) are critical for a bullish trend. Not seen in EGLD in recent months; the last HH lingered around $6.5126, now turned into LH at $5.8850 and $6.2075. Short-term, if $5.64 daily low holds, HL formation possible, but without BOS above EMA20 ($6.02), it remains a temporary rally. RSI turning above 41 could signal CHoCH, but weak in current structure. Bullish continuation target $8.7890 (score 31/100), but requires BTC-supported strong volume for +20% upside move.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend solid with LH/LL: Latest swing low $5.4800 (64/100), failure to hold above previous $5.2255 (70/100) confirms LL. Break of $6.2075 swing high completed bearish BOS, driving price to $5.71. MACD bearish and Supertrend resistance ($6.93) make downtrend continuation highly likely. Watch for drop below $5.4800 for LL continuation; target $3.1130 (score 22/100). In this structure, trend continuation dominates over short-term reversal.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) is the key to trend change. For bullish BOS: daily close above $5.8850 (66/100) swing high + volume increase, targeting $6.2075 next. This turns LH into HH and initiates bullish CHoCH. Bearish BOS: drop below $5.4800 swing low, targeting $5.2255; strengthens LL pattern. On 1W timeframe, above $6.5126 is mega BOS, signaling long-term reversal. Current $5.71 squeezed in resistance range ($5.8850), so BOS anticipation dominates – breakout direction determines trend. Education note: BOS confirmed by close breaking swing point; multi-timeframe confirmation essential against fakeouts.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

$6.2075 (70/100): Main resistance, pivot forming LH. Break here starts HH, tests $6.5126 (63/100) then $6.93 Supertrend. $5.8850 (66/100): Short-term resistance, 24h high $5.84 approached here. These levels are the downtrend’s defense lines; if they hold, LH continues; if broken, structural change.

Recent Swing Lows

$5.4800 (64/100): Nearby support, above 24h low $5.64. Break leads to $5.2255 (70/100) main support – deepens LL. These swing lows are buyers’ last bastion; holding without volume gives weak bounce instead of reversal. Education: Swing points defined by at least 3-5 candle swings at peak/bottom, strengthened with fib retrace.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC $90,154 (+3.04%) in downtrend, Supertrend bearish and main supports $88,311/$86,075 under threat. EGLD highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); if BTC can’t break $89,491 resistance, altcoin expansion limited. If BTC continues drop to $84,681, EGLD tests $5.2255. Conversely, BTC breakout at $91,255/$94,256 triggers EGLD bullish BOS. With rising dominance, EGLD under pressure – BTC levels determine EGLD structure. Follow EGLD Spot Analysis and EGLD Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

EGLD structure with LH/LL downtrend intact; $5.71 consolidation awaiting BOS. Bearish scenario weighs heavier ($5.4800 break extends LL), bullish requires $5.8850+. MTF alignment with 1D bearish dominant, 1W reversal potential but BTC-confirmed. Risk: Snap-back from low RSI, but EMA/Supertrend filtering required. Strategy: Long above $5.8850, short below $5.4800; monitor structural levels. Market volatile – always use stop-loss. (Word count: ~1050)