Shares to move sideways before PMI, inflation data

PHILIPPINE STOCKS may move sideways this week as investors await the release of key domestic economic data that could affect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) rate decision this month.

On Friday, the bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) jumped by 1.69% or 105.61 points to end at 6,328.97, while the broader all shares index went up by 0.99% or 35.20 points to close at 3,583.23.

Week on week, however, the PSEi declined by 4.29 points from its Jan. 23 finish of 6,333.26.

“The local bourse remained defensive [last] week as a hawkish US Fed pause and lackluster 3% fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) print weighed on sentiment. However, late-session bargain hunting on Friday, pared losses, leaving the PSEi modestly lower,” 2TradeAsia.com said in a market note.

“Pessimism took over last week on the back of the Philippines’ disappointing Q4 2025 economic performance. This caused the local bourse to decline for a second straight week. On a positive note, losses were trimmed on the final day, keeping the market above crucial lines,” Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial, Inc., said in a Viber message.

Philippine GDP growth slowed to 3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 5.3% in the same period a year prior and 3.9% in the third quarter. This brought the full-year average to 4.4%, well below the government’s 5.5%-6.5% goal.

For this week, the market may continue to price in growth expectations, especially with new economic reports set to come out, Mr. Tantiangco said.

“The underperformance of the local economy last quarter and the pessimistic views on how it would perform this year may still weigh on the market. Investors are expected to watch out for the S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) as this would give fresh clues on the state of the economy. Investors are also expected to watch out for the upcoming February inflation data,” he said. “Hopes that the BSP would cut policy rates in their February meeting may give the market support.”

PMI data will be released on Monday (Feb. 2), while the January inflation report is scheduled for Thursday (Feb. 5).

Analysts said that the weak GDP data give the BSP room to lower rates further to support domestic demand. The Monetary Board will hold its first policy meeting for this year on Feb. 19.

“At its current position, the local market is deemed attractive. As of Friday’s closing, the market’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 10.5 times, below its historical average of 14.4 times,” Mr. Tantiangco added. “Chart-wise, despite the two-week decline, the local market is still considered to be on an uptrend from mid-November 2025 to date.”

For this week, he put the PSEi’s major support at 6,150 and major resistance at 6,400.

For its part, 2TradeAsia.com placed the PSEi’s immediate support at 6,300, secondary support at 6,100, and resistance at 6,450. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno