Tesla Stock Forecast: Will $1.25T SpaceX-xAI Merge Boost TSLA?

Tesla shares closed at $421.96 as of February 4, holding flat while broader markets slipped. The muted move came as investors digested reports that SpaceX and xAI formally announce a merger.

The discussions, shared with select investors, have fueled speculation about how Elon Musk’s expanding corporate ecosystem could intersect with Tesla’s long-term strategy. 

Could this reshape how markets view TSLA?

SpaceX and xAI Move To a Landmark Deal

People familiar with the matter said SpaceX and xAI have created a merger that unites two of the most valuable private companies in the world. Bloomberg first reported the talks, noting that negotiations remained active and no final agreement had been signed. 

Source: Amuse via X

Sources said a formal announcement could arrive within days, though the structure could still change. On Feb 3rd, Elon confirmed that SpaceX had acquired xAI, unifying rockets, satellites, compute, and artificial intelligence into one vertically integrated engine. This is how America wins the next technological era.

A Strategic Link Between Space and Artificial Intelligence

The completed merger integrated SpaceX’s launch capabilities and satellite infrastructure with xAI’s artificial intelligence models and computing operations. Investors briefed on the transaction described it as a natural extension of Musk’s broader strategy to share infrastructure across his businesses.

SpaceX’s Starlink constellation emerged as a central asset within the combined platform. The company has pursued regulatory approval to deploy up to one million satellites over time, dramatically expanding its global reach. That network now provides a potential foundation for distributed, low-latency AI workloads operated by xAI. Space-based computing, once theoretical, moved closer to commercial reality.

Valuation Benchmarks and IPO Context

At the time of the merger, SpaceX carried a private-market valuation of nearly $800 billion. Market participants have previously projected that a future initial public offering could value the company above $1 trillion, with some estimates reaching $1.5 trillion. On Polymarket, traders assigned a 73% probability that a SpaceX IPO would debut above a $1 trillion market cap.

The merger occurred ahead of any formal IPO process. By consolidating xAI into SpaceX first, the combined company simplified its structure while presenting investors with a unified strategy centered on global infrastructure and artificial intelligence deployment.

xAI entered the deal with an estimated valuation of about $230 billion. Founded in 2023, the company scaled rapidly through investor backing and the development of large language models and specialized computing systems. Access to SpaceX’s launch capabilities and satellite network reshaped how xAI could train and deploy its models.

Tesla’s Equity Exposure Comes Into Focus

Tesla disclosed a $2 billion stake in xAI during its fourth-quarter earnings call, equating to roughly 1% ownership prior to the merger. Following the transaction, that position converted into approximately 0.2% ownership of the combined SpaceX-xAI entity, based on reported valuations.

The merged company carried an implied valuation of roughly $1.25 trillion. While Tesla’s ownership remained modest, the deal formally linked the automaker to one of the largest private technology platforms in the world. Tesla shares finished slightly higher on Tuesday, even as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average declined.

A Converging Musk Ecosystem

Tesla continues to focus on physical AI through autonomous driving systems, robotics, and future robo-taxi platforms. xAI contributes large language models and computing infrastructure. SpaceX adds orbital logistics, satellite connectivity, and long-term plans for space-based data centers powered by solar energy and natural cooling.

With SpaceX and xAI now combined, two pillars of Musk’s business empire operate under a single structure. Tesla, holding a direct financial stake, sits closer to that ecosystem than ever before. Space, cars, and computers once appeared disconnected. Following this merger, markets now assess how tightly those worlds may align going forward.