Inflationary pressures may resemble those of the late 1990s and early 2000s. The US economy is experiencing rapid growth, potentially leading to significant fiscal stimulus. Tax collections are a reliable economic indicator, surpassing traditional labor market surveys.
Key Takeaways
- Inflationary pressures may resemble those of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
- The US economy is experiencing rapid growth, potentially leading to significant fiscal stimulus.
- Tax collections are a reliable economic indicator, surpassing traditional labor market surveys.
- The gig economy is a growing contributor to tax revenue, with a substantial impact on economic metrics.
- Political incentives could drive increased fiscal spending as midterms approach.
- Inflationary acceleration could make stocks attractive in the near term.
- A secular bear market may emerge in the late 2020s due to political shifts.
- Institutions shape leaders more than leaders shape institutions.
- Quantitative easing has not led to inflation as previously predicted.
- The US lacks the industrial base to sustain its global order due to deindustrialization.
- Investors should diversify internationally rather than focusing solely on domestic stocks.
- Gold is favored over other commodities for long-term investment strategies.
Guest intro
Vincent Deluard is Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX. He previously served as Europe Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group and won the 2013 Euromoney Padraic Fallon Editorial Prize for his analysis of European debt crisis investment opportunities. He advises institutional investors on asset allocation, risk management, and global macro trends.
Inflationary trends and economic growth
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Deluard observes three bubbles: a stock market bubble, a pessimism bubble, and a nominal growth bubble.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Tax collections are seen as a more reliable indicator of economic health than labor market surveys.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Windfall gains from tax refunds are likely to stimulate consumer spending.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The increase in tax collections in January is a strong indicator of economic activity.
The gig economy and tax revenue
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The underlying tax base from the gig economy is expected to grow by 10% a year.
- The US economy is showing signs of strength that contradict pessimistic views.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Immediate economic impacts from upcoming tax refunds and fiscal measures are anticipated.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Political incentives will drive significant spending as midterms approach.
Stock market dynamics and inflation
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Current market conditions remind Deluard of late 1999 and early 2000, with rising volatility.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Institutions shape leaders more than leaders shape institutions.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Kevin Walsh may not be as hawkish as the market expects.
-
— Vincent Deluard
Technological advancements and economic implications
- A productivity boom could necessitate significant rate cuts.
- Deluard expresses skepticism about AI’s impact on productivity.
- Capex estimates from major companies are significantly increasing, indicating a positive economic impact.
- Nominal incomes are growing, indicating potential economic acceleration.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Data center construction is energy-intensive and contributes to inflation.
- A good macro analyst must hold contradictory thoughts simultaneously to navigate complex realities.
Global economic shifts and power dynamics
-
— Vincent Deluard
- There are three bubbles currently affecting the economy: a stock market bubble, a pessimism bubble, and a nominal growth bubble.
- Rapid technological change and a sense of unraveling contribute to societal nervousness.
- The current economic situation reflects a pattern of falling confidence across various demographics.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The value of a stock is influenced by the difference between the cost of equity and growth rates.
- The US may see a return to higher tax rates and stronger antitrust enforcement in the next electoral cycle.
Investment strategies and market risks
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The future of power sharing among global powers remains uncertain.
- Investors should consider allocating more to international assets rather than being excessively overweight in domestic stocks.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The biggest risk to any portfolio is its own exposure to a limited number of stocks.
- There is a growing trend of international investors looking to the US as a source of risk.
- Bringing capital back to Europe and Japan could create upward pressure on their currencies.
Commodities and alternative assets
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The current economic reacceleration is reflected in the price action of cyclical commodities and precious metals.
- A global settlement on monetary policy may occur in the mid-2030s.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The current economic climate supports a larger allocation to commodities like gold, silver, and platinum.
-
— Vincent Deluard
Inflationary pressures may resemble those of the late 1990s and early 2000s. The US economy is experiencing rapid growth, potentially leading to significant fiscal stimulus. Tax collections are a reliable economic indicator, surpassing traditional labor market surveys.
Key Takeaways
- Inflationary pressures may resemble those of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
- The US economy is experiencing rapid growth, potentially leading to significant fiscal stimulus.
- Tax collections are a reliable economic indicator, surpassing traditional labor market surveys.
- The gig economy is a growing contributor to tax revenue, with a substantial impact on economic metrics.
- Political incentives could drive increased fiscal spending as midterms approach.
- Inflationary acceleration could make stocks attractive in the near term.
- A secular bear market may emerge in the late 2020s due to political shifts.
- Institutions shape leaders more than leaders shape institutions.
- Quantitative easing has not led to inflation as previously predicted.
- The US lacks the industrial base to sustain its global order due to deindustrialization.
- Investors should diversify internationally rather than focusing solely on domestic stocks.
- Gold is favored over other commodities for long-term investment strategies.
Guest intro
Vincent Deluard is Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX. He previously served as Europe Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group and won the 2013 Euromoney Padraic Fallon Editorial Prize for his analysis of European debt crisis investment opportunities. He advises institutional investors on asset allocation, risk management, and global macro trends.
Inflationary trends and economic growth
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Deluard observes three bubbles: a stock market bubble, a pessimism bubble, and a nominal growth bubble.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Tax collections are seen as a more reliable indicator of economic health than labor market surveys.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Windfall gains from tax refunds are likely to stimulate consumer spending.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The increase in tax collections in January is a strong indicator of economic activity.
The gig economy and tax revenue
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The underlying tax base from the gig economy is expected to grow by 10% a year.
- The US economy is showing signs of strength that contradict pessimistic views.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Immediate economic impacts from upcoming tax refunds and fiscal measures are anticipated.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Political incentives will drive significant spending as midterms approach.
Stock market dynamics and inflation
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Current market conditions remind Deluard of late 1999 and early 2000, with rising volatility.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Institutions shape leaders more than leaders shape institutions.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Kevin Walsh may not be as hawkish as the market expects.
-
— Vincent Deluard
Technological advancements and economic implications
- A productivity boom could necessitate significant rate cuts.
- Deluard expresses skepticism about AI’s impact on productivity.
- Capex estimates from major companies are significantly increasing, indicating a positive economic impact.
- Nominal incomes are growing, indicating potential economic acceleration.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- Data center construction is energy-intensive and contributes to inflation.
- A good macro analyst must hold contradictory thoughts simultaneously to navigate complex realities.
Global economic shifts and power dynamics
-
— Vincent Deluard
- There are three bubbles currently affecting the economy: a stock market bubble, a pessimism bubble, and a nominal growth bubble.
- Rapid technological change and a sense of unraveling contribute to societal nervousness.
- The current economic situation reflects a pattern of falling confidence across various demographics.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The value of a stock is influenced by the difference between the cost of equity and growth rates.
- The US may see a return to higher tax rates and stronger antitrust enforcement in the next electoral cycle.
Investment strategies and market risks
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The future of power sharing among global powers remains uncertain.
- Investors should consider allocating more to international assets rather than being excessively overweight in domestic stocks.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The biggest risk to any portfolio is its own exposure to a limited number of stocks.
- There is a growing trend of international investors looking to the US as a source of risk.
- Bringing capital back to Europe and Japan could create upward pressure on their currencies.
Commodities and alternative assets
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The current economic reacceleration is reflected in the price action of cyclical commodities and precious metals.
- A global settlement on monetary policy may occur in the mid-2030s.
-
— Vincent Deluard
- The current economic climate supports a larger allocation to commodities like gold, silver, and platinum.
-
— Vincent Deluard
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/vincent-deluard-inflationary-pressures-mirror-the-late-90s-the-gig-economys-tax-impact-is-significant-and-stocks-may-thrive-amid-fiscal-stimulus-forward-guidance/
