Why Trump’s popularity is even more 'underwater' than you think: data expert
With the 2026 midterms roughly eight and one-half months away, GOP and Democratic strategists are paying very close attention to President Donald Trump's approval ratings — which are weak in a long list of polls released in February. A YouGov/Economist poll, for example, found that only 39 percent of Americans "strongly or somewhat approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, while 56 percent disapprove. And an Associated Press/NORC poll found Trump's approval at 36 percent, while NBC News/SurveyMonkey reported 39 percent.
Between Trump's approval ratings and a series of double-digit Democratic victories in late 2025 and early 2026 elections, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is feeling cautiously optimistic about the midterms — at least where the U.S. House of Representatives is concerned. Democratic strategists realize that trying to flip the U.S. Senate will be an uphill climb.
During an appearance on The New Republic's "The Daily Blast" podcast posted on February 19, Lakshya Jain (head of political data at The Argument) examines recent polling on Trump and the GOP. And she suggested that the data is even worse for Trump than many of his opponents are saying.
When Sargent cited specific polls — including a Reuters poll showing Trump's approval at 38 percent — Jain responded, "Yeah, I would say that one of the biggest things that we are seeing with Trump is that everyone who cares about cost of living is really, really mad at him."
Jain continued, "Like, the thing is — I have seen a lot of public opinion data — I can't remember the last time that a president was this imperiled for the economy right after his party enjoyed such a commanding economy edge, right? It's important to say here, Greg, that the Republicans have been known for their strength on the economy in the eyes of the voters. This is a Republican issue. Economics to Republicans is what healthcare is to Democrats — it's a traditional issue that is in their corner. And Trump is so deeply underwater on cost of living that it’s not even funny."
When Trump won the national popular vote by roughly 1.5 percent in 2024, voters cited the economy as a key factor in polls. But according to Jain, Trump is squandering the support he had on the economy.
Jain told Sargent, a former Washington Post columnist, "I think if you look at our polling data — I can actually pull this from our latest poll — we are finding that Trump is 14 points underwater with people who rank 'cost of living' as their top priority in the next election. And this is important to say: This is very ahistoric for Republicans. They are not used to getting clobbered on the economy. The last time I recall a Republican really getting hammered on the economy like this was (President George W.) Bush in 2008. And here's what we're seeing: Among voters who prioritize cost of living, Democrats lead by three percentage points. And I'm telling you, I can't recall the last cycle in which I saw that. Certainly not any time of late."
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