All about PUMP’s expected breakdown after $99M outflows, launchpad fees hit zero

PUMP, the native token that powers the memecoin launchpad Pump.fun, has consistently faced heavy capital outflows lately. These have placed the altcoin in a precarious position. In fact, over the last 24 hours alone, it has fallen by 9.5% – A sign of intensifying selling pressure across the market.

Capital outflows deepen losses

PUMP’s market capitalization recorded a significant drawdown following its latest price decline.

Data revealed that approximately $99.47 million exited the market within a day, pushing the valuation down from $715 million to $615 million. At the same time, trading volume rose, amplifying downside momentum.

Rising volumes alongside falling prices often signals aggressive selling activity. Such a dynamic typically accelerates declines as stronger sell-side pressure overwhelms available demand and forces the prices lower.

The derivatives market seemed to paint an even more concerning picture. According to Coinglass, for instance, that capital has continued to shrink while short trader concentration increased across the board.

Open Interest declined by 4% over the past 24 hours, signaling liquidity exiting the market. However, of the $146 million still active in perpetual contracts, short positions were dominant.

At the time of writing, the weighted average funding rate had a reading of -0.0054%. This reading suggested that traders have been allocating more capital towards positions that anticipate further downside. Such an imbalance also seemed to reinforce the bearish bias in the derivatives market.

Critical support under threat

Sustained capital outflows could significantly affect PUMP’s approximately 117,450 holders.

At press time, PUMP was trading near a critical support zone marked between $0.0067 and $0.0083 on the charts. This level will now act as a decisive battleground between buyers and sellers.

If price fails to rebound from this zone, the decline could extend further, potentially revisiting the lows last seen in December. A breakdown below support may open the door for a move towards approximately $0.0056.

Even if a short-term rebound occurs, persistent selling pressure could result in the formation of a lower high – A technical structure that often precedes another leg south.

Momentum indicators reinforced the bearish outlook. For example – The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) formed a bearish crossover, often referred to as a “death cross,” a signal that typically precedes additional downside.

If this structure holds, it could push PUMP below its press time support range and further weaken the broader outlook.

On-chain activity adds pressure

Finally, the on-chain metrics highlighted little relief for bulls.

Data from Artemis revealed a sharp decline in daily active users on the platform. Active addresses dropped by approximately 33,000, falling from 180,000 to 147,000.

A sustained decline in user activity often means weaker demand for PUMP. Especially since the token underpins trading activity on the platform.

Launchpad performance has also deteriorated significantly. Volume fell to just $6,600, while launchpad fees collapsed from a high of $781,600 to $0 as of 23 February.

This combination of weakening on-chain activity and declining revenue underscores broader ecosystem slowdown. With the price hovering near its critical support, the deteriorating fundamentals could weigh on both the short and long-term outlook for PUMP.

Final Summary

• $99 million exited PUMP’s market in a single-day swing, forcing the asset towards key support levels.
• Launchpad fees dropped sharply to $0, less than a month after recording $780,000 in revenue.