ADA Overvalued? ETH Still in Opportunity Zone

New data from Santiment shows a sharp shift in short-term profitability across major cryptocurrencies following the latest market bounce.

Using the 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric, Santiment analyzed whether large-cap assets are currently undervalued, neutral, or overvalued based on the average return of holders over the past month.

What the 30-Day MVRV Shows

The 30-day MVRV measures the average profit or loss of traders who bought within the last 30 days.

• Negative MVRV → Average holder is at a loss (often considered undervalued territory).
• Near 0% → Neutral zone.
• Positive MVRV → Traders are in profit (risk of overvaluation increases as profits rise).

Following today’s climb, the landscape looks different.

Current Positioning by Asset

• Ethereum (ETH): -5.5% – Mildly undervalued
• Bitcoin (BTC): -1.4% – Neutral
• XRP (XRP): -0.1% – Neutral
• Chainlink (LINK): +3.3% – Neutral, slightly profitable
• Cardano (ADA): +6.8% – Mildly overvalued

Ethereum remains in mildly undervalued territory, meaning recent buyers are still holding an average loss. Cardano, on the other hand, has moved into mildly overvalued conditions after its breakout.

Why MVRV Matters

MVRV offers a data-driven way to assess sentiment and positioning. When MVRV drops deeply negative, it often signals fear and potential accumulation zones. When it rises significantly positive, it suggests traders are in profit, and profit-taking risk increases.

Santiment emphasizes that instead of blindly buying dips, investors can use MVRV to identify when average returns fall meaningfully below 0%, signaling stronger risk-reward conditions.

Strategy Implication

• Consider accumulating when assets are in undervalued zones.
• Exercise caution when MVRV shifts into overvalued territory.

With ETH still mildly negative and ADA now positive, the current data suggests rotation and differentiation within large caps rather than broad overheating.

As always, MVRV is one tool among many, but it provides insight into whether the crowd is underwater or comfortably in profit.

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