Bitcoin’s ‘Muted’ Cycle: Why US$100K Became the Turning Point

Bitcoin’s recent price weakness is part of a broader four-year cycle, with selling activity intensifying around the US$100,000 (AU$141,000) threshold, Anthony Scaramucci, Managing Partner of SkyBridge Capital, said. He linked the downturn to long-term holders exiting positions at this level, reinforcing its role as a key psychological turning point.

Despite the cyclical nature of the move, Scaramucci noted that institutional capital and exchange-traded fund inflows have altered market dynamics by cushioning volatility. This has resulted in a more restrained cycle compared to previous periods, though the underlying pattern remains intact. He explained that market participants who anticipate the cycle may inadvertently contribute to its continuation through their actions.

We’re in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG’s, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Anthony Scaramucci, Managing Partner, SkyBridge Capital

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A Familiar Pattern

Market sentiment had previously leaned heavily towards a bullish outlook, with expectations that Bitcoin could reach US$150,000 (AU$211,500) in 2025. That outlook shifted abruptly following an October correction, which saw prices retreat sharply from earlier highs. The move from roughly US$126,000 (AU$177,660) down to US$60,000 (AU$84,600) demonstrated the speed at which consensus can unravel.

Scaramucci also referenced past market behaviour, including the recovery that followed the late-2022 FTX collapse, to illustrate how periods of low engagement can precede renewed growth. Such episodes suggest that sentiment shifts remain a powerful driver of price action.

He anticipates continued volatility in the near term, with a more sustained uptrend likely to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026 as conditions stabilise.

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