Did Trump leak information before posting the tweet? Polymarket's unusual betting points to a US-Iran ceasefire by next week.

Author: Jinshi Data

On Monday morning local time, US President Trump posted on Truth Social that the US and Iran had a "very good and productive conversation" about resolving the Middle East war.

But before Trump publicly announced this news, several accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket had already made large bets that the war would end this week.

Ten recently opened accounts have invested thousands of dollars in the Polymarket “US-Iran ceasefire” market, betting on a ceasefire to be reached by March 31 or April 15. These accounts have a total bet of about $160,000, and if the ceasefire is achieved by the end of the month, they will make a profit of more than $1 million.

These accounts were identified by Lirrato, a user on the X platform, last Sunday and then amplified by the PolymarketHistory account. Following Trump's post on Monday, these 10 accounts had already realized a profit exceeding $300,000.

One account, named "NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS," has attracted particular attention. Registered in late February, the account's first two trades were a $7,600 bet on a US strike against Iran before February 28th and a $11,283 bet on a strike before March 1st, netting over $85,000 in profits. Now, the account has placed another $8,005 bet on a US-Iran ceasefire before March 31st and a $15,614 bet on a ceasefire before April 15th, with these two bets already showing a profit of over $30,000.

The size, timing, and past performance of the bets have led outside observers to question whether these Polymarket accounts belong to insiders—that is, people with ties to US and Iranian political circles who have access to undisclosed information about diplomatic developments.

Prediction markets have previously been embroiled in insider trading scandals. A recent example is a Polymarket trader who bet over $400,000 that the US would take military action against Venezuela; days later, the US announced the arrest of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Its competitor, Kalshi, also recently banned two users for insider trading, marking the platform's first public investigation into the matter.

On Monday, Polymarket announced an upgrade to its insider trading rules, explicitly prohibiting three types of behavior: trading with stolen confidential information, trading with illegal insider information, and trading when users have the ability to influence the outcome of events.

Polymarket Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar stated, "Market prosperity depends on clear rules, and the new rules provide clear expectations for all participants and demonstrate the compliance system we have built."

This rule change may indicate that Polymarket will follow Kalshi's lead and launch an insider trading investigation. While it's still uncertain whether the accounts betting on a US-Iran ceasefire were insiders, the platform's investigation is expected to uncover the truth.

Before Trump's post, S&P 500 and crude oil futures also saw unusually high trading volumes.

In addition, minutes before Trump posted his market-influencing social media post, S&P 500 futures and crude oil futures also saw unusually high trading volumes.

Around 6:50 a.m. New York time on Monday, trading volume in S&P 500 e-Mini futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced a sharp and isolated jump, breaking the previously quiet pre-market trading environment. The morning session is typically illiquid, making this sudden surge one of the largest trading moments of the session up to that point.

The crude oil market also saw a similar trend. Around the same time, trading activity in WTI crude oil futures for May delivery also rebounded significantly, with a notable spike in trading volume breaking the previously calm market.

Approximately 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump’s statement on delaying the strike on Iranian power plants immediately triggered a rebound in risk assets, with S&P 500 futures surging more than 2.5% before the market opened, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell nearly 6% after the statement was released.

The simultaneous surge in trading volume in the stock and crude oil markets during the morning session caught the attention of traders, especially since the surge occurred without any apparent catalyst.

The futures market typically experiences lower liquidity in the early morning, making brief buying and selling spikes more noticeable than during regular trading hours. Nevertheless, these trades are still remarkable, as anyone who buys large amounts of stock futures at this time while simultaneously selling or shorting crude oil futures can reap huge profits within minutes.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the CME Group declined to comment.

Algorithmic trading strategies and macro-driven strategies may also trigger rapid cross-asset class flows in early trading without a single identifiable catalyst.