Bitcoin Poised for Huge Gains as Gold Correlation Suggests Late November Surge

On October 4, 2025, Sanae Takaichi was elected as the new leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party. She is expected to be nominated as the country’s first female prime minister during the extraordinary Diet session on October 15. Known for her pro-growth and fiscally proactive approach, Takaichi’s economic policies prioritize ending deflation and promoting economic expansion. While she has not made explicit statements on cryptocurrency, her fiscal stance and potential cooperation with opposition parties could influence crypto taxation reforms, which the Japanese digital asset industry has long anticipated. Japan’s Iron Lady: Takaichi’s Profile Takaichi has long admired the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Her admiration brings her closer to realizing ambitions linked to the “Iron Lady” persona. Born in 1961, Takaichi graduated from Kobe University’s Faculty of Business Administration, trained at the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, and gained practical experience as a US Congressional Fellow. After working as a television broadcaster, she was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1993 and is currently serving her tenth term. As a politician, she has held key positions, including three terms as Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications and Economic Security Minister and special appointments at the Cabinet Office. She played a central role during the Abe administration, demonstrating economic and security policy influence. After being elected LDP leader, she stated, “I will have everyone work like carriage horses. I will abandon the concept of work-life balance,” emphasizing her determination. Contrasting Stances with Former Prime Minister Ishiba Takaichi’s approach to cryptocurrency and Web3 differs from that of former Prime Minister Ishiba. In August 2025, Ishiba expressed support for Web3 and blockchain technology at WebX2025, the country’s largest Web3 conference. However, when questioned about separate taxation for cryptocurrency in December 2024 during a Diet session, Ishiba showed a cautious stance, which disappointed some industry stakeholders. Although Ishiba spoke positively at public events, he remained reluctant to pursue concrete tax reforms. Takaichi has not made specific statements on cryptocurrency policy, but her proactive fiscal approach and tax-reduction orientation may indirectly support reforms in the sector. Opposition Cooperation and Potential Tax Reforms A key factor for potential cryptocurrency tax reform is Takaichi’s policy toward opposition parties. She has indicated intentions to strengthen cooperation with the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People, which have historically supported cryptocurrency tax reforms. The Democratic Party for the People has historically supported crypto tax reforms. Its leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, expressed disappointment with former Prime Minister Ishiba’s cautious stance. The Japan Innovation Party has also been positive toward deregulation and tax reform. If Takaichi strengthens cooperation with these oppositions, the likelihood of implementing cryptocurrency tax reforms as part of a broader tax reduction policy could increase. On August 29, 2025, the Financial Services Agency(FSA) formally requested a review of cryptocurrency taxation for FY2026. Proposed measures include: introducing separate taxation—aligning crypto gains with equities at approximately 20%, compared to the current progressive rate of up to 55%—and allowing loss carryforwards for up to three years. The government’s “New Capitalism Grand Design 2025 Revision” explicitly mentions considering separate taxation. If Takaichi deepens cooperation with opposition parties and prioritizes tax reductions, these reforms could be realized in the 2026 ordinary Diet session. Trump Visits Japan: Implications for Crypto Policy One of Takaichi’s first significant foreign policy challenges will be the scheduled visit of US President Donald Trump in late October. Trump is expected to visit Japan for three days starting around October 27. During this visit, he will hold his first summit with Takaichi. Since assuming office in January 2025, Trump has stated his intention to make the US a global center for crypto, implementing policies such as building Bitcoin strategic reserves and establishing a cryptocurrency advisory committee. Both leaders’ shared pro-growth perspectives may allow for economic policy coordination during the meeting. However, Takaichi’s conservative values may affect the degree to which she aligns with Trump’s crypto initiatives. Any discussions on Bitcoin reserves or crypto deregulation will be an essential indicator for Japan’s cryptocurrency industry. Uncertainties and Potential Impacts Significant uncertainties remain regarding Takaichi’s cryptocurrency policies. Her primary focus may remain on traditional industry policies and national security. Cabinet appointments are a key factor. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato’s retention could maintain policy continuity. However, Kato had limited engagement on crypto issues under Ishiba, which could limit drastic changes. Digital Minister Masaki Taira has also not articulated specific positions on cryptocurrency or Web3. Takaichi’s proactive fiscal policy could have potential negative impacts. Aggressive government spending might accelerate inflation, prompting the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy, which could be a headwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Her conservative orientation could lead to stricter measures against money laundering and terrorist financing. Furthermore, her interest in semiconductors and traditional manufacturing may deprioritize cryptocurrency and Web3. Takaichi’s election as LDP leader represents a turning point for the cryptocurrency industry in Japan. Strengthened cooperation with opposition parties and her tax-reduction stance may create opportunities for long-sought reforms, such as separate taxation and loss carryforwards. However, her limited direct engagement with cryptocurrency, potential regulatory tightening, and fiscal policy risks also create uncertainties. Cabinet appointments, opposition coordination, and the outcome of the Trump summit in late October will be critical factors influencing the industry’s future.

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