US President Donald Trump said Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir didn’t suggest changes to the US blockade on Iran. The market for Trump announcing a lift by May 31 is at 84% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
The denial drove a 12-point drop in the May 31 market within a single day, as traders repriced the likelihood of a blockade lift. The April 19 market sits at just 8% YES, showing deep skepticism about any imminent change.
Actual USDC volume across both markets is $29,602, meaning these moves are backed by real dollars, not just speculative face value. It takes $1,419 to move the May 31 price 5 points, which suggests the current pricing reflects genuine conviction rather than thin-book noise.
Trump’s hardline stance makes a resolution by May look unlikely. At 22¢, a YES share on the May 31 market pays $1 if the blockade lifts, a 4.5x return. That bet requires a major diplomatic breakthrough within 43 days, which is hard to square with Trump publicly rejecting the premise that Pakistan even raised the issue.
Watch for Trump’s statements on social media or new developments from the Islamabad talks. The next clear signal would be any confirmed change in the US Navy’s operational posture near the Strait of Hormuz or a new round of diplomatic engagement involving Pakistan.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-denies-pakistan-urged-changes-to-us-blockade-on-iran/
