A technical pattern highlighted by well-known market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has reopened discussion around whether XRP is approaching a decisive inflection point.
Key Takeaways
- Binance reserves are dropping fast as long-term and institutional buyers accumulate XRP.
- U.S. spot ETFs continue to post steady inflows, tightening available supply.
- Price outlook depends on whether demand remains high while exchange liquidity keeps shrinking.
The analyst — who has repeatedly criticized fractal-based predictions — admitted that the current three-dimensional structure on the XRP chart is “difficult to ignore” because it closely resembles past setups that preceded sharp directional moves.
Fractal Context and Probability Breakdown
According to EGRAG, long consolidation periods in XRP followed by squeezes above key moving averages have historically been followed by strong moves, often without extended sideways activity afterward. Based strictly on structure — rather than sentiment — the analyst outlined the following likelihoods:
- 55% chance of a full breakout,
- 25% chance of a gradual and slower uptrend,
- 20% chance of a breakdown and deeper retest.
He emphasized that the data does not guarantee direction, but does suggest that the chart has reached a point that historically produces major volatility.
Exchange Data Supports Accumulation Narrative
Independent on-chain data from CryptoQuant adds another layer to the current analysis. XRP reserves on Binance have now fallen to their lowest levels in months, signaling sustained outflows from exchanges toward private wallets.The most recent reading shows reserves near 2.7 billion XRP, down sharply from early October levels.
Analysts typically interpret shrinking exchange balances as a sign that long-term holders and institutional buyers are absorbing supply faster than traders are returning it to the market. This trend aligns with increased flows into U.S. spot XRP ETFs, which logged more than $21 million in inflows on Wednesday alone, according to SoSoValue.
Combined, reserve contraction and ETF demand suggest that supply available for trading continues to decline — a backdrop that often amplifies price sensitivity once volatility returns.
Market Behavior After Long Silence
EGRAG added that extended calm in XRP rarely lasts, and that once an extended accumulation period ends, price typically commits to one direction. His personal stance remains bullish, although he acknowledged that the market will ultimately confirm the next stage.
Market Context and Price Action
XRP has shown early signs of momentum returning. Exchange supply has been decreasing for several weeks — a trend analysts often link with long-term accumulation rather than short-term trading activity. Spot ETF demand has also helped strengthen bid pressure during recent market dips.
As of writing, XRP trades near $2.19, showing mild gains over the past 24 hours. On the 4-hour chart:
- RSI has climbed toward 60, indicating improving strength without entering overbought territory.
- MACD continues to print a positive histogram and a bullish crossover remains intact.
If the breakout scenario materializes, analysts watching the fractal suggest that the next major resistance cluster is located in the $3.00–$3.50 region, followed by a longer-term target range between $7.00 and $11.00 in an extended parabolic run.
If the setup fails, the primary support area sits near $1.80–$1.95, where buyers previously defended the trend.
Cautious Optimism, Not Hype
Technical analysts agree on one point: this is not an ordinary consolidation phase. Exchange reserves continue to fall, ETF flows remain positive, and long-term holders are absorbing supply. Combined with improving technical momentum, the market is positioned for a decisive move — but whether the fractal becomes the launchpad for a breakout or simply another false signal depends on upcoming volume and broader market sentiment.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/market/xrp-is-disappearing-from-exchanges-what-does-this-mean-for-investors/
